Government Reopens; will it help mortgage rates?
Hi Friends, our first BLS jobs report since the Since the last Fed rate cut on shutdown that started on 10/1/25 on 10/29/25, mortgage rates have been Thursday 11/20/25, which I cannot slowly increasing. The reason for this report on in this issue since my is directly tied to comments from publisher needs my content by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell which 18th of each month. indicated that another Fed rate cut at the 12/10/25 meeting is not as likely Based on corporate reporting, like as the markets were predicting or the ADP jobs numbers, we are hoping for. anticipating the BLS jobs numbers for the month of September 2025 to Investment in US treasury bonds be anemic. A weak jobs number will decreased on Powells comments likely cause the markets to predict a causing the 10-year treasury bond higher likelihood of a Fed rate cut at yield to increase back over 4% which the 12/10/25 Fed meeting, which will pushed mortgage rates up. At each of increase investment in US treasury the last two Fed rate cuts, on 9/17/25 bonds and push mortgage rates lower. and 10/29/25, comments from Powell caused less investment in US December will also see the Fed reduce treasury bonds which caused bond the amount of longer-term treasury yields to increase and mortgage rates bond supply into the markets which to increase in step with bond yields. will also reduce bond yields and Mortgage rates are now roughly .25% help reduce mortgage rates. I am higher than they were prior to the looking for mortgage rates to make 9/17/25 Fed rate cut, but still roughly another run lower in December as 1% lower than they were this time we approach the 12/10/25 Fed rate last year. decision.
The government shutdown ended on 11/12/25 after a record 44 days. During this period, many economic reports that impact the bond market and mortgage rates were not available. One key report the markets look at to gain insight into future Fed rate decisions is the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) jobs report. We will have
Prior to the last two Fed meetings, mortgage rates were lower than after the Fed made their rate cuts. That seems likely to happen again in December. I am predicting a lower mortgage rate environment starting in December 2025 and continuing into 2026.
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Wishing you all a very happy holiday season with love and good health in the new year.
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